Learn how to – Using Computer Programs and Math to Bet on the Super Bowl

Learn how to – Using Computer Programs and Math to Bet on the Super Bowl.

The NFL postseason may have only just begun but all football fans will be eagerly anticipating the Super Bowl that takes place on February 12 at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

The two teams battling it out for football’s grandest prize are not known yet, so the Super Bowl odds are sure to change in the next few weeks. But there are ways you can get ahead of the curve when it comes to betting on the big game. You don’t even necessarily need to know much about sports either. Forget about the highlights shows and just make sure you have the right computer programs and math on your side.

Different Programs

When it comes to betting on the Super Bowl – or any football game – a program that crunches the statistics can be invaluable. But you need to understand that every program will come out with different outcomes. It is not a surefire way of betting on sports. If it were, everyone would be doing it.

A good analogy is cooking. Every analyst is using his or her computer programs to figure out what might happen. But, even though they all have the same recipe, the ingredients and the way of cooking are different. That’s why different programs can come up with different outcomes.

Data, Data, Data

One constant throughout any computer program related to football and the Super Bowl is that they take in a lot of information. When you are betting on the Super Bowl you need to have data from the two teams playing, going back all season. Putting all that information and analyzing it is key.

But the details are in how that data is analyzed. The best sports analysts know that not all data is equal. There needs to be more weight given to particular periods and modes of play for it to come up with lower-risk betting tips. That is all the goal of using statistics to help with betting is, after all.

Start With the Coin Toss

Most sports analysts will tell you that their data is more useful for the smaller parts of the game, rather than the outright winner bets. Luckily, online sportsbooks offer betting markets on the minutiae of football games these days, so you should be able to find a suitable wager.

Although it is not a bet that uses a complex computer program in any way, the coin toss before the game is a perfect example of betting on the small stuff. Probability suggests that this will even out over time but at the moment tails leads in the stats. Maybe ‘tails never fails’ is true after all!

Bet with Head, Not Heart

One of the more obvious rules when it comes to sports betting is that you should always bet with your head, not your heart. These statistical programs take that edict as far as it goes. There is zero room for gut instinct if you are using pure data to inform your Super Bowl wagers.

Although this may sound like a cold way of approaching something that is supposed to be fun, it makes perfect sense. Online sportsbooks rely on people betting on a hunch to keep them in business (aside from the vig, of course). Stick to the numbers and you are giving yourself a better chance of low-risk betting.

No Program is Perfect

Using computer programs and math formulas to bet on the Super Bowl should not be seen as an exact science. It will give you a boost, but it is thought that even the best model will only be 65-70% effective. But that is far higher than using a mixture of gut feeling and basic knowledge.

Even the most statistic-friendly sport has a random element to it. To be fair, it is why we love sports so much – the unpredictability. That may not be good for betting on a championship game like the Super Bowl. But we would rather have a good game than something sterile and formulaic. The 70% chance of winning a bet will just have to do.